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In Zloty we trust, don't we?
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Author
Francesco Polo, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi di Milano, 2013-14
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Francesco Polo
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Academic area
Economics
Abstract
Motivation of this final work for my bachelor program was born mainly in personal perspective and they are related to three fundamental channels Bocconi University drove me to: the first one concerns with the admission to the Exchange program at Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie (Warsaw School of Economics) I attended for five months; the second one is the internship in a biomedical company in the business center of Warsaw and the third one is the rigorous quantitative approach which my bachelor degree program in Economics and Social Sciences taught me. These three pillars I lived through personally, together with a lot of curiosity connected to a developing country that is finally free to compete, motivated me to do a mathematic analysis on economics factors of the country and use them with minimal knowledge of the economical, social and political structure thanks to the mentioned opportunities that my university provided me with.
The aim of this final work is to create missing historical data on the admission of Poland to Eurozone in 1998: simulating this event, we are able to comprehend how basic economics variables have shifted. Economy is not a pure science, so we do not have the presence of experimental data, which would help us, benchmark without errors. We have to use analysis of scenarios simulating data: in this particular case, the synthetic control method created by Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller was chosen. This econometrics method established an algorithm for Stata that implemented those “created observational data not observed” for Poland joining the Euro. Therefore, like a synthetic control, through a linear combination of Eurozone’s countries it is possible to simulate the Polish historic trend with the presence of a unique European currency with minimal errors. Using this method, severely based on mathematical concepts, it is possible to comment (empirically, but on rigorous basis) a fake historical event in order to evaluate if choices made by policy makers were remarkable or contestable. From the quantitative analysis, we deduce that the policy of maintaining a domestic currency helps Polish economy altogether with social and political situation. Qualitative speaking, the political choice seems to be historically correct considering the gradual growth trend of the Country not in the European competitive average. Adhesion of the European currency in 1998 would have been, without any doubts, too premature and now, in 2014, the convergence of necessary requirements is more and more concrete day by day. Consequently, it is time to analyse historical date, as below, with the aim of producing empirical results for the future of this central Country in expansion.
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